The scowls on shoppers’ faces have faded at least a bit. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in May, the first such increase since last November. Preliminary results from the board’s most recent survey found the Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose 4.8 points to 135.9. Meantime, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—surged 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.
The cutoff date for preliminary results was May 19, which means about half of the responses were collected after the Trump administration’s May 12 announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.
“The rebound [in the indices] was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards,” said said Stephanie Guichard, The Conference Board’s Senior Economist, Global Indicators/ “The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects and future income—rose from their April lows. Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects.”
May’s rebound in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the strongest improvements among Republicans. However, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence in all age and income groups was still down due to previous monthly declines.
The board asked survey participants to provide write-in responses on what topics are affecting views of the economy, which showed that tariffs are still on top of consumers’ minds. Notably, consumers continued to express concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy, but some also expressed hopes that the announced and future trade deals could support economic activity.
While inflation and high prices remained an important concern for consumers in May, there were also some mentions of easing inflation and lower gas prices.
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The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through technology, expertise and panel of over 36 million consumers.
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