Two just-released holiday shopping forecasts see at best a so-so season in the making. On the one hand, based on its survey of consumers, Bain & Co. projects “a healthy but below-average sales growth this season.”
More specifically, the firm forecasts a 4% year-over-year (YoY) increase in retail sales in November and December, reaching more than $975 billion. That compares with a 10-year average of 5.2%, underscoring consumer caution, though rising wages, stock market strength and potential interest rate cuts could help boost holiday sales, Bain says.
Then there’s PwC’s report, which took a more literary approach to describing what it sees ahead. “Holiday shopping typically plays out like a well-rehearsed melody — steady rhythms, familiar refrains. But this year, it feels more like jazz: improvisational and less predictable, with shifting consumer behavior, smarter spending and a younger generation leading the key change.”
Some specifics from PwC’s 2025 Holiday Outlook survey include consumers expecting their seasonal spending to decline on average by 5% from 2024 — the first notable drop since 2020. More broadly, 84% expect to cut back over the next six months, citing rising prices, new tariffs and the higher cost of living.
The sharpest breaks fall along generational lines, PwC found. Gen Z respondents (ages 17 to 28) — many dealing with major life transitions and early careers in a tough job market, often without much in savings — say they expect to reduce their holiday budgets by 23%. By contrast, millennials, Gen X and baby boomers expect to maintain or even increase their holiday spending.
Click here for more from Bain’s outlook and here for more from PwC.
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