U.S. retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024, pushing them above $1 trillion mark for the first time, the National Retail Federation’s annual holiday spending forecast has found. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
Said NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews, “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
While retailers are hiring additional help to meet consumer demand this holiday season, they’re keeping a tighter rein on those expenditures than in recent years. Specifically, the NRF expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, which it said is in line with a slower-paced labor market. By comparison, retailers made 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.
Mathews added that while seasonal hiring normally supports the job market this time of year, some hiring may have been pulled forward to support retailers’ holiday buying events in October. Because of the ongoing tariff situation, retailers will be closely monitoring spending patterns and waiting to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season.
A notable headwind this year is the federal government shutdown, the timing of which is particularly challenging just before the holiday season. Delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand. While many negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts.
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NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail.
