India’s diamond, gemstone and jewelry trade with the United States weakened significantly in 2025, a development U.S. jewelry retailers should watch closely as it affects supply chains, pricing and long-term sourcing strategies. While India’s overall exports appear stable on paper, that stability is increasingly being driven by markets outside the U.S. — and by higher gold prices rather than stronger consumer demand.
According to the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), India’s jewelry and gemstone exports to the U.S. fell 44.42% year-on-year during April–December 2025, dropping to $3.86 billion (compared to $6.95 billion in the corresponding period in 2024). The downturn intensified at year-end, with December shipments plunging 50.44% compared with the same month a year earlier.
The U.S. remains India’s largest export destination, accounting for nearly 30% of total gem and jewelry exports. However, ongoing tariff uncertainty, combined with softer discretionary spending, has significantly disrupted trade flows. GJEPC Chairman Kirit Bhansali warned that prolonged instability could erode the long-term competitiveness of Indian suppliers in the U.S. market: “The sharp decline in shipments is a matter of serious concern. Prolonged uncertainty around tariffs could adversely impact the long-term viability of the U.S. market for Indian jewelry exporters. That said, we have full faith in the government of India and remain hopeful that ongoing bilateral trade discussions will lead to a positive and timely resolution.”
What U.S. Retailers Should Notice
Despite the sharp decline in U.S. shipments, India’s overall gem and jewelry exports for April–December 2025 totaled $20.75 billion — down just 0.41% year-on-year. At first glance, that suggests resilience. But the makeup of those exports tells a more complicated story.
India is increasingly shipping product to markets where trade agreements offer lower duties and smoother access. Exports to the UAE rose 28.08% to $6.89 billion, shipments to Hong Kong climbed 28.19% to $4.25 billion, and exports to Australia jumped nearly 40% to $277.76 million. These gains helped offset U.S. weakness, but they also highlight that the U.S. is no longer the automatic growth engine it once was for Indian suppliers.
For U.S. retailers, this shift raises an important question: Will Indian manufacturers continue prioritizing the U.S. market if margins and predictability are better elsewhere?
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Diamonds Lose Ground, Jewelry Holds Up — With a Caveat
The pressure is most evident in diamonds. Cut and polished diamond exports fell 7.85% year-on-year to $8.99 billion, largely due to reduced U.S. demand. Lab-grown diamond exports also declined 10.28% to $840.14 million, reflecting softer price realization and cautious buying.
Jewelry categories, by contrast, showed growth. Total gold jewelry exports rose 7.28% to $8.67 billion, silver jewelry exports surged more than 44%, and platinum jewelry exports jumped nearly 50%, driven by niche-market demand and diversification beyond the U.S.
But for U.S. retailers, it’s critical to understand what’s really driving those gains.
Gold Prices Are Inflating the Numbers
Much of the growth in gold jewelry exports was value-driven, not volume-driven. GJEPC noted that gold bar prices were up about 52% during April–December 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier.
According to Chairman Bhansali, “During April- December 2025, plain gold jewelry exports recorded a value growth of 7.72% to $3816.97 million. It is important to note that this increase was largely value-led, as gold bar prices rose by 52% compared to the same period last year, resulting in higher export realizations even though export volumes moderated.”
That trend accelerated dramatically over the full year. Gold prices rose from $2,623.81 per ounce at the end of December 2024 to $4,339.65 per ounce by the end of December 2025. At those levels, export values can rise even if unit shipments are flat or falling.
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For U.S. buyers, this means total export growth does not necessarily signal stronger demand or increased production. Instead, higher raw material costs are inflating dollar figures, while margins and volumes remain under pressure.
A Market in Transition
India’s jewelry sector is becoming more diversified, more trade-agreement-driven, and less reliant on the U.S. than at any point in recent decades. From a U.S. retail perspective, that transition carries both risks and opportunities.
On one hand, reduced dependence on the U.S. could tighten availability or slow turnaround times if exporters prioritize other markets. On the other, India’s push toward value-added jewelry, alternative metals and broader global distribution could theoretically support more stable pricing and product innovation.
What’s clear is that U.S. retailers can no longer read India’s export totals at face value. Between shifting trade flows and record-high gold prices, the real story lies beneath the surface — and it’s one that will increasingly shape sourcing decisions in the year ahead.
