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Holiday Retail 2025: Record Dollars, Softer Demand — and What It Means for 2026

Much of the growth jewelers saw was price-driven, not demand-driven.

Published

2 days ago

January 5, 2026

Sherry Smith

For the first time ever, U.S. holiday retail sales (Nov–Dec 2025) surpassed $1 trillion, a historic milestone. According to the National Retail Federation, sales grew 3.7–4.2% over 2024, even amid persistent economic headwinds.

But when we dig beneath the headline, the story becomes far more nuanced. Much of this growth was price-driven, not demand-driven. Higher average transaction values lifted dollar sales, even as unit volume lagged. Mastercard SpendingPulse reported 3.9% YoY growth in total retail sales (in-store + online) from Nov 1–Dec 21; but our data shows declining foot traffic throughout Q4, resulting in three consecutive months of lower unit sales, even during peak holiday weeks.

What we saw among independent jewelers in December:

Gross Sales

+5% overall growth
Driven largely by a 12% increase in average retail prices
Influenced by higher commodity costs (notably gold) and tariff pressures

Diamond Jewelry

Average retail sale +11%
Gross sales –4%
Units –13%
Price increases alone did not offset weaker demand

Colored Stones

Outperformed expectations

Finished +3% vs. last December

Supported by a 20% increase in average retail price

Sterling Silver

Gross sales –8%
Units –17%
Despite elevated prices, demand softened significantly

Looking Ahead to 2026

Record holiday sales in 2025 were fueled more by higher prices than higher demand. Declining traffic and unit sales suggest a more cautious, intentional consumer beneath the surface.

As we move into 2026, success for retail jewelers will depend less on raising prices and far more on:

Strategic category management
Disciplined inventory decisions
Maximizing conversion from a smaller, more purposeful shopper base

The opportunity is still there, but it will belong to retailers who are data-driven, agile, and deeply aligned with how consumers are actually shopping today.

Sherry Smith

Sherry Smith is the director of business development for The Edge Retail Academy.

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