For the first time ever, U.S. holiday retail sales (Nov–Dec 2025) surpassed $1 trillion, a historic milestone. According to the National Retail Federation, sales grew 3.7–4.2% over 2024, even amid persistent economic headwinds.
But when we dig beneath the headline, the story becomes far more nuanced. Much of this growth was price-driven, not demand-driven. Higher average transaction values lifted dollar sales, even as unit volume lagged. Mastercard SpendingPulse reported 3.9% YoY growth in total retail sales (in-store + online) from Nov 1–Dec 21; but our data shows declining foot traffic throughout Q4, resulting in three consecutive months of lower unit sales, even during peak holiday weeks.
What we saw among independent jewelers in December:
Gross Sales
- +5% overall growth
- Driven largely by a 12% increase in average retail prices
- Influenced by higher commodity costs (notably gold) and tariff pressures
Diamond Jewelry
- Average retail sale +11%
- Gross sales –4%
- Units –13%
- Price increases alone did not offset weaker demand
Colored Stones
- Outperformed expectations
- Finished +3% vs. last December
- Supported by a 20% increase in average retail price
Sterling Silver
- Gross sales –8%
- Units –17%
- Despite elevated prices, demand softened significantly
Looking Ahead to 2026
Record holiday sales in 2025 were fueled more by higher prices than higher demand. Declining traffic and unit sales suggest a more cautious, intentional consumer beneath the surface.
As we move into 2026, success for retail jewelers will depend less on raising prices and far more on:
- Strategic category management
- Disciplined inventory decisions
- Maximizing conversion from a smaller, more purposeful shopper base
The opportunity is still there, but it will belong to retailers who are data-driven, agile, and deeply aligned with how consumers are actually shopping today.
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